Key Takeaways
- AI hyperscalers are still chasing peak season airfreight capacity that ecommerce shippers already booked, and TAC Index data suggests rates could move sharply higher before peak is over.
- US Census data analysed by supply chain professor Jason Miller shows August air cargo imports hit a record by weight, up 20% year on year, with GPUs and memory doing most of the lifting, not parcels.
- Jet fuel is up 111.2% year on year and is now rising faster than freight rates. Cathay Cargo, DHL Air UK and Japan Airlines have all reset fuel surcharges within days of each other this October.
- Forto’s own Q3 analysis confirms ecommerce’s relative share of airfreight demand is shrinking as semiconductors, servers and data centre hardware take priority.
- DSV and Morrison Express are already rethinking capacity commitments and gateway strategy to cope with hyperscaler demand they cannot fully predict.
Disruption is not a seasonal event that logistics vendors ride out and then forget about. It is the baseline condition of modern peak season, and the clearest proof this year is a scramble for airfreight capacity that has nothing to do with Black Friday. As an Ecommerce Logistics Consultancy, Liberty Jai has spent years telling vendors to plan for volatility as the normal state of play, and the latest data from TAC Index shows exactly why: AI infrastructure shippers, not ecommerce retailers, are now the ones deciding how much peak capacity is left and what it will cost to use it.
Why AI Hyperscalers Are Now Ecommerce’s Biggest Rival for Airfreight Capacity
According to TAC Index, ecommerce customers and other major shippers with product launches had already secured their peak-season capacity, while some AI hyperscalers had yet to book theirs. That is the uncomfortable detail for anyone running an ecommerce supply chain: the biggest unknown left in peak air capacity is not driven by shoppers at all. TAC’s Baltic Air Freight Index dipped 2.1% in the week to 12 October, largely a Golden Week effect, but remained 24.3% above a year earlier, and spot rates out of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Korea mostly rose regardless.
The scale of the shift shows up in the trade data. Supply chain professor Jason Miller’s analysis of US Census figures found August air freight imports by weight hit a record, up 20% year on year, with computer parts, including GPUs, and memory adding significant tonnage, which Miller linked to the “disproportionate role” of AI infrastructure investment. Forto’s own third-quarter analysis agrees: semiconductors, AI hardware, servers and data centre infrastructure are driving growth, while ecommerce becomes less important in relative terms. DSV’s Stefan Krikken says forwarders must now balance firm capacity commitments against flexible airline bookings, hyperscaler demand and gateway constraints all at once, while Morrison Express is reassessing its own gateways given growing hyperscaler production in South East Asia and high Taiwanese volumes.
What This Means Commercially for Ecommerce Logistics Vendors
If you sell into ecommerce logistics, this is a live warning that the capacity and pricing assumptions behind your peak season plan can be upended by an entirely different industry’s buying decisions, with almost no warning. The fuel picture compounds it: jet fuel rose 3.1% in the week to 9 October and is up 111.2% year on year, per IATA data cited by TAC. JTD Advisory’s David Kerr warns fuel costs are now rising faster than freight rates, squeezing carrier margins, and expects surcharge resets through late October, with older four-engine freighters most likely to be repriced or parked. Cathay Cargo has already raised its Hong Kong-origin long-haul fuel surcharge by around 26% for early October, DHL Air UK lifted its charge by 4.1% for 12 to 18 October, and Japan Airlines raises its domestic export fuel surcharge by 3.8% from 16 October. The concrete action now is to stress-test every airfreight-dependent lane against a hyperscaler booking the capacity you were counting on, and to have a second mode or gateway already costed before that happens.
If you want to stay ahead of these shifts, get in touch with the Liberty Jai team and find out how we can sharpen your sales strategy.
Peak season will keep arriving with a new, unpredictable source of competition for capacity, and vendors who treat that as normal, not exceptional, will be the ones still standing next time. Liberty Jai works with logistics and supply chain vendors who want to sell that resilience convincingly.
Ready to grow your logistics business? Talk to Liberty Jai today and find out how our Ecommerce Logistics Consultancy expertise can open doors for your business.